Tuesday, September 13, 2011
P-I-G Banking Implosion
There will be a banking implosion by the end of October in Europe, a Bear Stearns-like implosion as the PIG nations struggle to get their fiscal houses in order. Italy issued a $5 billion bond offer today that was well subscribed.
But they are merely buying time because as the Greek tragedy unfurls upon the French and German banks, jitters across Europe will worsen.
The US TARP model is being studied under the financial microscope across the European banking and governmental system. Thee difference is that with TARP in the US, a decision was made in a rather swift manner.
In Europe, squabbling over a Euro-TARP will necessitate TIME, a commodity the European banks and governments DO NOT HAVE!
According to PIMCOs El-Erian, speaking on Bloomberg Radio (see link below),
he believes a "full blown banking crisis" will hit Europe as French banks try to deal with the massive sovereign debtor nations that they have been lending to over the past several years.
Credit Default Swaps (CDS) on European bonds are widening across the region and as the economies in Ireland, Spain and Portugal slow to a snail's pace, the question is - Will these societies follow the riotous Greek model of fight back?
Another more serious question - What if several PIIGS nations DEFAULT IN UNISON?
Here are some data points to consider -
*Insurance on Italian government debt, priced at 172 basis points as of June 30, more than doubled to 451 basis points on Sept. 6, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
*Sept. 12th, Portugal jumped 79 basis points to 1,213, Italy rose 40 basis points to 503 and France was up 11 at 189.
*Moody's Investors Service cut Ireland's ratings by one notch to Ba1 from Baa3 and kept a negative outlook. Celtic Junk!
And to top all that off our friend Jurgen Stark, chief economist at the ECB, resigned on Sept. 10th saying he was leaving for "personal reasons". The real reason was his vehement opposition of the purchase of Spanish and Italian bonds by the bank. A STARK reminder of the bewildering indecision amidst Europe's top dog bankers. (See Link Below)
So there we have it, ingredients for a perfect storm: CDS spreads rising across sovereign Euro nations; banksters in strong disagreement; potential social break down once the "austerity measures" bite and debt:GNP ratios that are unsustainable in the medium term.
Time to grab that Belgian beer - BLUE CHIMAY!