Thursday, September 22, 2011
El-Erian on the Crystal Ball Again
Pimco's El-Erian wrote a book three years ago and has been spot on most of the time. IN an interview on Bloomberg he is certain that a catastrophic financial event is on the cards REALLY SOON in Europe.
(See Link Below)
It doesn't take brain science to figure out what country is going to default, but the TIMING of that default is key. My bet is the second week in October, say beginning October 15th to 17th, a deja vu from 1987's crash on October 19th 1987, a Monday. Or perhaps later in the month, exactly 82 years from the 1929 crash of October 29th, a Tuesday.
Here is the dominoes-falling-AND-FAILING-event:
A PIIG nation or a FRENCH BANK exposed to a PIIG nation will default or collapse. The Euro, due to panic, will be crushed and money will flow into the Swiss Franc, the USD and GOLD.
The outcome of the default or bank implosion will be far greater than the 2008 banking collapse of Lehman and Bear Stearns. But if we were to believe the words coming out of the IMF (another Neo-Colonial Tool that has wrecked many developing nations under its SAPs), all is well in Europe and the IMF can cope with any ILL-liquidity that may arise!
(See Links and Interview with LaGarde - 12 minutes long)
The above link is a brief history of how the IMF has operated with IMPUNITY over the past several decades, in the early 90s and late
Along with the World Bank, the IMF has forced countries to sell national assets to repay loans doled out WITHOUT THE WILL of the people in these countries.
Who are the heavy weights in the IMF?
The voting rights of member countries is determined by their equity interest.
The U.S. (with 16.77 per cent), Japan (6.02 percent) or Germany (5.88 percent) are the heavyweights of the IMF. More detail below.
Gambia on the other hand, is only 0.03 percent to 0.05 percent and Haiti with little or nothing.
Hence countries with no equity don't get squat.
Instead they get SQUASHED.
Ireland, one of the PIIG nations has no say and is currently waking up from its 7 year FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC HANGOVER(2000-2006), a toxic mixture of loans, mortgages doled out to clowns who couldn't afford them and an over confident population who's delusions were based on house prices increasing into perpetuity.
Along with 12 other nations, Ireland's percent of the fund total is a hilariously tiny 3.6%! Included in these 12 are other tiny island nations, such as, Jamaica, Dominican Republic and St. Kits, with one large nation Canada, who probably hold the majority share of that 3.6%.
So this is how the IMF operates. It's like the tall stack poker player at the table with MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF CHIPS. The short stack player is screwed even if he has a good hand, because he can't compete on a level playing field.
Like the player in the top picture, he's got a relatively good hand, Q-Ace, but with a short stack he's screwed. He can only borrow from the tall stacked players and repay what they dictate on their TERMS.
That's where the PIIGS are at right now and its just a matter of time how it all pans out.
But what is certain, El-Erian's crystal ball is SPOT ON!